Infrastructure is on Fire..

I believe 2010 would be the year for Infrastructure sector to get back on fire. The FY 2009 results for some infrastructure related stocks that I cover were excellent. JSMR net income has grown about 40% year on year, WIKA has grown its net income about 25%. ADHI net income is more fantastic grew about 100%.

Over the last 6 months, the infrastructure sector has been lagging the overall market. If you look at this chart, obviously the last couple of days, ADHI, WIKA, and JSMR have started to chase the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). I believe this is just the beginning and there is still more potential upside for those stocks.

(Source: Bloomberg.Com)

From valuation point of view, those stocks are also still very cheap. Based on their FY 2009 EPS, I made some projection for their FY 2010 earnings with either 20% or 30% growth.

	FY 2009	GROWTH
		20%	30%
		2010F	2010F
ADHI	94.2	113.04	122.46
JSMR	146.5	175.8	190.45
WIKA	33.7	40.44	43.81

Based on the data, the ideal price for 2010 would be:

	PE 10x		PE 12x
	20%	30%	20%	30%
ADHI	1130.4	1224.6	1356.48	1469.52
JSMR	1758	1904.5	2109.6	2285.4
WIKA	404.4	438.1	485.28	525.72

Hence, I would recommend you guys to accumulate these infrastructure related stocks.

JSMR : Overweight, Target : 1980

Bloomberg Code : JSMR:IJ
Reuters Code : JSMR.JK

Jasa Marga ( JSMR ) would increase its toll roads fees on August 31, 2009. The percentage of the increased would be around 15% and would be applied to Jagorawi, Jakarta - Tangerang, Jakarta inner road, Pondok Aren - Ulujami, Padalarang - Cileunyi, Cipularnag, Palimanan - Kanci, Belmera - Medan, Semarang, Surabaya - Gempol and Jakarta outer ring road. (Source: TV One 12 Agustus). Based on this plan, if it is approved by the government, the ideal price for JSMR stock would be in the range of 1840 - 1980. Here is my projection:

(in Mio RP)	2Q-09	1Q-09	2008	2007	2006
Sales	861,889.00	820,551.00	3,319,340.00	2,617,710.00	2,270,450.00
Operating Income	321,256.00	367,735.00	1,371,620.00	1,015,950.00	819,453.00
Operating Margin	37.27%	44.82%	41.32%	38.81%	36.09%
Net Income	199,119.00	196,540.00	707,798.00	277,982.00	462,567.00
Net Margin	23.10%	23.95%	21.32%	10.62%	20.37%
Total Share	6,780.84	6,780.84
EPS	29.36	28.98
Annualized EPS	117.46	115.94

Based on its historical data, its net margin is around 22.5%. I applied this margin to forecast its 3Q and 4Q 2009. Here is the projection:

(in Mio RP)	4Q-09F	3Q-09F
Sales	991,172.35	904,983.45
Operating Income	366,733.77	334,843.88
Operating Margin	37.00%	37.00%
Net Income	223,013.78	203,621.28
Net Margin	22.50%	22.50%
Total Share	6,780.84	6,780.84
EPS	32.89	30.03
Annualized EPS	131.56	120.12

I applied the P/E multiplier to its Annualized EPS. Based on its strategic business and its long term growth potential, I believe the appropriate P/E would be at least 14 x - 15 x.

Expected Price	4Q-09F	3Q-09F	2Q-09	1Q-09
PE 14 x	1841.77	1681.62	1644.44	1623.14
PE 15 x	1973.33	1801.73	1761.90	1739.08

Rekomendasi Saham Jasa Marga (JSMR)

Saya sangat tertarik dengan saham JSMR, dan saat ini merupakan saham yang memiliki bobot paling besar dalam portofolio saya. Menurut analisis Danareksa tgl 29 Januari 09, mereka menentukan target price JSMR di level 1540. Saat ini harga saham JSMR masih di level 940, jadi ada peluang untuk kita memperoleh return sebesar sekitar 80%.

Analisis Fundamental
Berikut ini adalah analisis fundamental yg saya buat tentang saham JSMR.

Income Statement
	(in million)	2007	2006	2005	2004
	Revenue	2,617,710.00	2,270,450.00	1,797,180.00	1,532,010.00
	Growth	15.29%	26.33%	17.31%
	Gross Profit	1,670,780.00	1,392,690.00	1,127,860.00	917,308.00
		19.97%	23.48%	22.95%
	Opr Income	1,015,950.00	819,453.00	653,674.00	517,463.00
		23.98%	25.36%	26.32%
	NI bef. Tax	402,057.00	505,899.00	197,673.00	320,868.00
		-20.53%	155.93%	-38.39%
	N I	277,982.00	462,567.00	307,543.00	230,807.00
		-39.90%	50.41%	33.25%
	EPS	40.88	68.025	19.202	32.569
		-39.90%	254.26%	-41.04%

Balance Sheet
	(in million)	2007	2006	2005	2004
	Current Asset	4,075,790.00	824,000.00	456,413.00	265,618.00
	Growth	394.63%	80.54%	71.83%
	Total Asset	13,847,200.00	10,255,700.00	9,736,410.00	7,969,740.00
		35.02%	5.33%	22.17%
	Current Liab.	1,325,320.00	1,353,600.00	1,393,830.00	708,191.00
		-2.09%	-2.89%	96.82%
	Total Liab.	7,871,910.00	7,870,150.00	7,754,310.00	6,159,830.00
		0.02%	1.49%	25.89%
	Total Equity	5,975,320.00	2,385,550.00	1,982,100.00	1,809,910.00
		150.48%	20.35%	9.51%
Cash Flow Statement
	(in million)	2007	2006	2005	2004
	CFO	489,735.00	297,099.00	261,717.00	339,786.00
	Growth	64.84%	13.52%	-22.98%
	CAPEX	-387,246.00	-434,777.00	-2,220,850.00	-793,077.00
		-10.93%	-80.42%	180.03%
	CFI	50,527.50	-495,210.00	-2,249,480.00	-886,766.00
		-110.20%	-77.99%	153.67%
	CFF	3,199,380.00	41,141.00	2,195,810.00	277,332.00
		7676.62%	-98.13%	691.76%
	Net Change in Cash	3,739,642.50	-156,970.00	208,047.00	-269,648.00
Ratio		2007	2006	2005	2004
	Current Ratio	307.53%	60.87%	32.75%	37.51%
	Debt to Equity	131.74%	329.91%	391.22%	340.34%
	Operating Margin	38.81%	36.09%	36.37%	33.78%
	Profit Margin	10.62%	20.37%	17.11%	15.07%
	ROA	2.31%	4.63%	3.47%	2.90%
	ROE	6.65%	21.18%	16.22%	12.75%

Berikut adalah grafik pertumbuhan revenue dan equity dari JSMR

Berdasarkan data-data fundamental diatas, kita dapat melihat bahwa JSMR masih sangat memiliki peluang untuk bertumbuh hingga 5 tahun kedepan. Perlu diingat juga bahwa saat ini JSMR memiliki 5 proyek jalan tol baru sehingga nilai perusahaan diharapkan akan terus bertumbuh. Selain itu diharapkan juga pada tahun 2009 ini, ROE akan meningkat seiring dengan terselesaikannya salah satu proyek baru di pertengahan 2009.

Analisis Teknikal



JSMR terlihat terus mengalami tren penguatan. Saat ini terjadi konsolidasi di supportnya di level 940. Terlihat dari stochastic, ada indikasi penguatan akan berlanjut kembali. Jangka menengah JSMR akan menguji level resistance-1 di 1050. Jika dilihat, ada indikasi terbentuknya formasi bullish triangle, dimana jika JSMR mampu menembus level 1050, maka dalam jangka menengah akan menuju ke resistance berikutnya di level 1200. Jika melihat tren pelemahan dow jones yang mencatatkan bulan januari terburuk sepanjang sejarah (-8% pada bulan januari 2009), maka momentum penguatan JSMR mungkin akan terhambat. Tetapi saya masih optimis JSMR memiliki support yang sangat kuat di level 940.

Kesimpulan
Rekomendasi : Buy
Target Price 1 : 1050
Durasi : 1.5 bulan
Target Price 2 : 1200
Durasi : 3 bulan
Stop Loss : 890