Infrastructure is on Fire..

I believe 2010 would be the year for Infrastructure sector to get back on fire. The FY 2009 results for some infrastructure related stocks that I cover were excellent. JSMR net income has grown about 40% year on year, WIKA has grown its net income about 25%. ADHI net income is more fantastic grew about 100%.

Over the last 6 months, the infrastructure sector has been lagging the overall market. If you look at this chart, obviously the last couple of days, ADHI, WIKA, and JSMR have started to chase the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). I believe this is just the beginning and there is still more potential upside for those stocks.

(Source: Bloomberg.Com)

From valuation point of view, those stocks are also still very cheap. Based on their FY 2009 EPS, I made some projection for their FY 2010 earnings with either 20% or 30% growth.

	FY 2009	GROWTH
		20%	30%
		2010F	2010F
ADHI	94.2	113.04	122.46
JSMR	146.5	175.8	190.45
WIKA	33.7	40.44	43.81

Based on the data, the ideal price for 2010 would be:

	PE 10x		PE 12x
	20%	30%	20%	30%
ADHI	1130.4	1224.6	1356.48	1469.52
JSMR	1758	1904.5	2109.6	2285.4
WIKA	404.4	438.1	485.28	525.72

Hence, I would recommend you guys to accumulate these infrastructure related stocks.

JCI: a Record High

the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) has been rallying since mid February 2010 to reach a new record high in its history at around 2900. The foreign investors are the major buyer with total fresh fund inflow more than 3 trillion rupiah for the 1Q 2010.

In the last few days, the market has some correction. I believe this is just a normal correction, while the overall trend is still bullish.


(Source Dongsuh Securities, edited)

If the JCI could maintain its first uptrend support, the JCI would continue the rally again in the next few days. But I prefer to choose the second possibility. The JCI might not be able to maintain its first uptrend support, hence it would retrace to around 2730 (38.2% fibonacci retracement). Hence, if this is the case, I suggest to take some profit and wait until JCI reach 2730 that might be happen in about a 2-3 weeks, and then get along with the bull again.