ELTY 61.8% Retracement, TP: 225

Bloomberg Code: ELTY:IJ
Reuters Code: ELTY.JK

I would like to discuss ELTY from technical point of view. In my observation, ELTY start the long rally at 55 level and reached the highest level at 390. In the last few months ELTY has been decreasing substantially due to its group (Bakrie) right issue for some of its subsidiaries. The Dubai crisis also has triggered this stock to go down further.

I would show you some chart to get some ideas to buy this stock with fibonacci retracement approach. With its rally from 55 to 390, the 61.80% retracement is around 183 level. If in the next few days the stock shows some strong support around 183, I would recommend a speculative buy for this stock.


(Source: Dongsuh Securities)

BUMI has rebounded more than 8% today. I am expecting that the other Bakrie stocks would follow BUMI to rebound. I would set 222.5 level as the first target (50% retracement), with potential gain about 20%.

Here is the complete retracement level:

23.60%	310.94
38.20%	262.03
50%	222.5
61.80%	182.97
100%	55

BUMI is Lagging the market

Over the last 3 months BUMI has been lagging the overall market. This condition, I believe due to the management way of handling the debt. My previous price target of BUMI was 4000 at the end of 2009. It is very little chance for BUMI to reach that target. Even though BUMI would not be able to reach 4000 this year, I still optimistic that BUMI would pass that target next year.

I would show you some charts, showing the relative performance of BUMI against the other stocks. The first chart would show you the performance of BUMI against other coal stocks over the last 3 months.

(Source: Bloomberg, click to enlarge)

As you can see, BUMI performance is -17% (green line) and the mining index is close to 0 (yellow line) PTBA and ADRO both are performing so nice up more than 25% (red and yellow lines)

On the second chart you could see that compare to other large cap stocks, BUMI has been lagging these other large caps. BBRI (green line), ASII (yellow line), and SMGR (orange line) are performing positively.

(Source: Bloomberg, click to enlarge)

The future performance of BUMI would heavily influenced by the 3Q result which will be published the end of the year. If the result is good, I believe BUMI would go beyond 3000 level.

While the Jakarta Composite Index has reached 2500, it would not go to 2600 if BUMI which is heavily weighted the index still lag the market behind. I am expecting BUMI to reach 2800 at the end of the year, so that the JCI rally would continue.