Tunas Ridean (TURI) is attractive

Bloomberg Code: TURI:IJ
Reuters Code: TURI.JK

PT. Tunas Ridean (TURI) operates automobile dealerships that sell new and used motor vehicles, spare parts and accessories as well as provide after sales services. The company also provides operating lease and consumer financing services.

As a cyclical stock, TURI could be considered as one of the stock that you have to hold in your portfolio these days. The automobile industry is still growing in Indonesia which has large domestic based demand. The improvement in the global economy recently would also contribute some significant portion in TURI’s next quarter sales. While we are approaching the end of the year, I projected the demand of vehicles would be significantly higher in the coming months.

The 3Q-2009 sales has growth more than 30% q/q. I projected that TURI would grow it sales at least 15% in the next quarter. I will show you my projection:

TURI 4Q-2009 EPS PROJECTION

(in Mio RP)	4Q-2009F	3Q-2009	2Q-2009	1Q-2009
Sales	1,631,344.00	1,418,560.00	1,077,900.00	1,045,830.00
Opr Income	32,626.88	27,769.00	16,388.00	7,526.00
Opr Margin	2%	1.96%	1.52%	0.72%
Net Income	60,359.73	51,072.00	42,755.00	140,283.00
Net Margin	3.70%	3.60%	3.97%	13.41%
Total Share	1395	1395	1395	1395
EPS	43.27	36.61	30.65	100.56
Ann EPS	173.07	146.44	122.59	402.25

With the projected annualized EPS of 173.07, I derived the ideal price of TURI at the end of 2009. I believe the ideal PE multiplier would be in the range of 10 – 12x.

TURI EXPECTED PRICE

Expected Price	4Q-09F
PE 10 x	1730.74
PE 12 x	2076.89

INTP: The Growth is real

The cement industry is growing still. My favorite stock in this industry is Indocement (INTP). If you guys have been following me, on my last post I showed you guys the fib retracement as a tool to buy this stock(Here: http://indoekuitas.blogspot.com/2009/10/get-ready-to-ride-bull.html ) On that post, I recommended the 23.6% retracement as the level to buy this stock at 10.400. This week INTP closed at 11.800, so you guys might have made about 13%.

I'll show you guys the q/q result of INTP.



Even though the sales were not growing that fast, INTP capable of making consistent growth on its EPS. I believe on the 4th quarter the revenue would grow faster and would reflected on its EPS.



The 3Q-09 q/q earning is growing although only 3.9%, while the 2Q-09 was growing 33% q/q.