Saturday, April 10, 2010

Infrastructure is on Fire..

I believe 2010 would be the year for Infrastructure sector to get back on fire. The FY 2009 results for some infrastructure related stocks that I cover were excellent. JSMR net income has grown about 40% year on year, WIKA has grown its net income about 25%. ADHI net income is more fantastic grew about 100%.

Over the last 6 months, the infrastructure sector has been lagging the overall market. If you look at this chart, obviously the last couple of days, ADHI, WIKA, and JSMR have started to chase the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). I believe this is just the beginning and there is still more potential upside for those stocks.


(Source: Bloomberg.Com)

From valuation point of view, those stocks are also still very cheap. Based on their FY 2009 EPS, I made some projection for their FY 2010 earnings with either 20% or 30% growth.

FY 2009

GROWTH

20%

30%

2010F

2010F

ADHI

94.2

113.04

122.46

JSMR

146.5

175.8

190.45

WIKA

33.7

40.44

43.81

Based on the data, the ideal price for 2010 would be:

PE 10x

PE 12x

20%

30%

20%

30%

ADHI

1130.4

1224.6

1356.48

1469.52

JSMR

1758

1904.5

2109.6

2285.4

WIKA

404.4

438.1

485.28

525.72

Hence, I would recommend you guys to accumulate these infrastructure related stocks.

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