Thursday, August 20, 2009

Cement Industry Analysis

I would show you guys the cement industry players data. Cement is a very prospective sector in Indonesia. There are three major players which are Semen Gresik (SMGR), Indocement (INTP), and Holcim (SMCB). I would start it with trend analysis.

Trend Analysis
The economic crisis is influencing this sector growth as well as other sectors, even though the effect is not that bad. I predicted that in 2010 the industry will grow faster than today.

SMGR is leading the industry with market share 48.61% followed by INTP and SMCB with 34.45% and 16.94% respectively. Table below is the detail:

2Q-2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

Indocement

34.45%

36.50%

35.42%

35.05%

34.64%

Holcim

16.94%

17.93%

18.16%

16.59%

18.69%

Gresik

48.61%

45.57%

46.43%

48.37%

46.66%

Total

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Company Data

INDOCEMENT (INTP)

2Q-2009

2008

2007

Total Asset (Mio IDR)

11,262,900.00

11,286,700.00

10,037,900.00

Book Value (Mio IDR)

9,118,740.00

8,500,190.00

6,893,500.00

Net Cash Flow (Mio IDR)

346,670.00

482,382.00

264,372.00

CAPEX (Mio IDR)

-57,299.00

-233,286.00

250,110.00

Sales (Mio IDR)

4,795,490.00

9,780,500.00

7,323,640.00

Operating Income

1,628,441.00

2,459,870.00

1,593,420.00

Net Income

1,172,471.60

1,745,500.00

980,103.00

Dividend

552,184.80

147,249.00

110,437.00

Total Share

3,681.23

3,681.23

3,681.23

Profitability

ROE

12.86%

20.53%

14.22%

ROA

10.41%

15.47%

9.76%

Operating Profit Margin

33.96%

25.15%

21.76%

Net Profit Margin

24.45%

17.85%

13.38%

Financial Risk

Debt / Equity

23.51%

32.78%

45.61%

Valuation

BV per share

2477.09

2309.06

1872.61

EPS

318.50

474.16

266.24

Sales per share

1302.69

2656.86

1989.45

Cash Flow per share

94.17

131.04

71.82

DPS

150.00

40.00

30.00

HOLCIM (SMCB)

2Q-2009

2008

2007

Total Asset (Mio IDR)

7,121,705.00

7,674,980.00

7,208,250.00

Book Value (Mio IDR)

2,817,925.00

2,537,926.00

2,257,357.00

Net Cash Flow (Mio IDR)

-308,086.00

171,068.00

394,510.00

CAPEX (Mio IDR)

-33,859.00

-176,723.00

-165,810.00

Sales (Mio IDR)

2,357,731.00

4,803,377.00

3,754,906.00

Operating Income

497,876.00

926,277.00

536,260.00

Net Income

279,999.00

282,220.00

169,410.00

Dividend

0.00

0.00

0.00

Total Share

7,662.90

7,662.90

7,662.90

Profitability

ROE

9.94%

11.12%

7.50%

ROA

3.93%

3.68%

2.35%

Operating Profit Margin

21.12%

19.28%

14.28%

Net Profit Margin

11.88%

5.88%

4.51%

Financial Risk

Debt / Equity

152.73%

202.41%

219.32%

Valuation

BV per share

367.74

331.20

294.58

EPS

36.54

36.83

22.11

Sales per share

307.68

626.84

490.01

Cash Flow per share

-40.20

22.32

51.48

DPS

0

0

0

SEMEN GRESIK (SMGR)

2Q-2009

2008

2007

Total Asset (Mio IDR)

11,991,449.00

10,602,964.00

8,515,227.00

Book Value (Mio IDR)

8,317,759.50

8,069,586.00

6,627,262.50

Net Cash Flow (Mio IDR)

229,750.00

924,404.00

1,078,690.00

CAPEX (Mio IDR)

-385,739.80

-561,764.00

-322,645.00

Sales (Mio IDR)

6,767,275.80

12,209,846.00

9,600,801.00

Operating Income

1,914,283.70

3,387,185.80

2,396,848.20

Net Income

1,513,599.90

2,523,544.50

1,775,408.40

Dividend

1,261,764.00

887,711.30

647,760.20

Total Share

5,863.58

5,922.18

5,931.52

Profitability

ROE

18.20%

31.27%

26.79%

ROA

12.62%

23.80%

20.85%

Operating Profit Margin

28.29%

27.74%

24.97%

Net Profit Margin

22.37%

20.67%

18.49%

Financial Risk

Debt / Equity

44.17%

31.39%

28.49%

Valuation

BV per share

1418.55

1362.60

1117.30

EPS

258.14

426.12

299.32

Sales per share

1154.12

2061.71

1618.61

Cash Flow per share

39.18

156.09

181.86

DPS

215.19

149.90

109.21

From the data above, I prefer to invest in SMGR and INTP since both companies obviously could make some significant profit. SMGR’s ROE are always grows, in 2007 it was 24.97%, in 2008 was 31.27% and for 2Q-2009 its ROE was 18.2% or equal to 36.4% annually.

INTP also managed to grow its ROE which are 14.22% in 2007, 20.53% in 2008 and 12.86% in 2Q 2009 (or equal to 25% annually).

INTP is preferable if we look at the Debt to Equity ratio, which continually decreased. SMGR growth in Debt / Equity might be due to its expansionary plan in the future, which is going to build some new plants.


Valuation

Based on the data, here is the projected EPS and current Book Value per share:

Forecasted next year EPS

SMGR

567.9

INTP

727.76

SMCB

46.94

Current BV per share

SMGR

1418.55

INTP

2477.09

SMCB

367.73


with today 20 August 2009 closing price, here is the ratio:

Ratio

P / BV

Forward P / E

SMGR

4.16

10.39

INTP

3.88

13.19

SMCB

3.59

28.12


I think the SMGR and INTP are still very undervalue given their strong future growth. I believe PE ratio for SMGR should be around 12x and INTP around 15x.

4 comments:

XuCloudy said...

SMGR debt/equity should NOT be so high.
it should be about 3%.
You should relook into your reference.

DeronCapital said...

@XuCloudy..
What I tried to figure in Debt/Equity is total liability divided by total equity (financial leverage).. I might have made a wrong definition.. Thanks for your comment

XuCloudy said...

it should be total DEBT divided by total equities..

Just to say the least, is it not fair to put the dividend payable into this ratio right?

XuCloudy said...

anyway, it is a good comparison by you.