Thursday, April 2, 2009

BUMI resources (BUMI) or ADARO (ADRO) ?

Many people avoid in collecting BUMI stock lately since the management have made some bad decisions according to the market participants. As we all know, BUMI has acquired DEWA, Fajar Bumi Sakti and Pendopo Energi Batubara in last December with total transactions more than 6 trillion rupiah. I was also avoiding to collect BUMI but I changed my mind since I look at its performance last year compare to Adaro which has been one of my favorite stock. I will show it to you...

BUMI 2008 2007
Total Asset (Mio IDR) 63,838,904.27 33,832,800.00
Book Value (Mio IDR) 18,922,758.71 13,464,000.00
Net Cash Flow (Mio IDR) 2,063,367.36 1,724,346.32
CAPEX (Mio IDR) -6,799,282.42 -3,495,600.00
Sales (Mio IDR) 40,540,717.26 27,186,000.00
Operating Income 13,292,584.70 4,514,400.00
Net Income 7,744,383.10 9,468,000.00
Dividend 968,006.53 1,964,400.00
Total Share 19,404.00 19,404.00
Profitability
ROE 40.93% 70.32%
ROA 12.13% 27.98%
Operating Profit Margin 32.79% 16.61%
Net Profit Margin 19.10% 34.83%
Financial Risk
Debt / Equity 2.37 1.51
Valuation
BV per share 975.20 693.88
EPS 399.11 487.94
Sales per share 2089.30 1401.05
Cash Flow per share 106.34 88.87
ADARO 2008 2007
Total Asset (Mio IDR) 33,720,170.00 14,688,700.00
Book Value (Mio IDR) 14,009,245.00 2,150,554.00
Net Cash Flow (Mio IDR) 1,380,292.00 44,784.00
CAPEX (Mio IDR) -1,463,972.00 -650,770.00
Sales (Mio IDR) 18,092,502.00 11,592,640.00
Operating Income 4,211,858.00 2,252,519.00
Net Income 887,198.00 88,534.00
Dividend 0.00 0.00
Total Share 25,348.51 1,427.97
Profitability
ROE 6.33% 4.12%
ROA 2.63% 0.60%
Operating Profit Margin 23.28% 19.43%
Net Profit Margin 4.90% 0.76%
Financial Risk
Debt / Equity 1.41 5.83
Valuation
BV per share 552.67 1506.02
EPS 35.00 62.00
Sales per share 713.75 8118.27
Cash Flow per share 54.45 31.36
If you look at the BV per share, BUMI is worth for 975.20. Today BUMI closed at 900, so just based on BV BUMI is relatively attractive. You could also compare it with ADRO which has BV per share of 552.67, which today closed at 890. From this point of view, BUMI should be rewarded with higher market price.

If we look at the D/E ratio we should agree that there has been some weaker indicator in BUMI which has changed its D/E ratio to 2.37. But I think this value is comparable with its long term expansive plan.

If you compare the EPS, Sales per share or CF per share, you might also realize that obviously BUMI is more attractive than ADRO at this present time. Also you could check the profitability. As a company BUMI has given its shareholder significant ROE.

So I guess I would start to accumulate BUMI again this week..

2 comments:

Unknown said...

I am a new player. Early this week, brought Buni at 1950 and Adaro at 1210. Shoud i keep these shares, otherwise i will losing daily.

DeronCapital said...

@Helen..
BUMI and ADRO prices are very sensitive to the price of oil. The last news that we got, the unemployment rate in the USA is still very high, which force the price of oil going down. In the short term period, I still expecting BUMI to trade sideways in the range of 1700-1950. You bought BUMI at a premium. But in the next two months I expect the price of oil would be in the range of $75-$80, so I expect to see BUMI at around 2200 in the next two months and would like to see BUMI at 3000 at the end of the year 2009