Target for 2010

The market starts the trading day in 2010 with confidence and full of optimism. You guys might have your personal target for Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) this year. (Please join the poll at the bottom of my blog). Me personally, set 2950 – 3000 as the target for this year or around 15% - 20% return for full year 2010.

The commodity sector I believe would be the main index mover at the beginning of the year, with BUMI as my favorite stock in this sector. I set the TP for BUMI at 4000. The plan to double its production in 2012 would be the main factor to the price movement.

The other stock that I like from Bakrie group is ELTY. The Book Value of ELTY today is around 213. If ELTY could grow about 20% this year, its book value is expected to be at 250. With P/BV ratio of 2, I am expecting ELTY to reach 500 at the end of 2010 or more than 100% gain.

I also still like cement sector with SMGR as my top pick. I am expecting SMGR to grow 20% - 30% this year. With this projection of growth, I am expecting SMGR to reach 9000 – 10000 level this year. Since 2005, SMGR has been successful in growing its book value 20% every year. Hence, I believe it is not a difficult task for SMGR to repeat its growth story.

In banking sector, I would overweight BBRI. I am expecting BBRI to grow 15% - 25% this year. The yoy inflation rate in December 2009 at 2.78% is very likely to boost the credit consumption. The TP that I set for BBRI is at 9200.

Here is the summary of the target price of the index and some stocks that I picked:

	Price 2009	Target Price	Potential Gain
JCI	2534	3000	18.39%
BUMI	2425	4000	64.95%
ELTY	193	500	159.07%
SMGR	7550	10000	32.45%
BBRI	7650	9200	20.26%