JCI, continuing rally or further correction ?

In the last 10 days, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) has significant pullback. The pull back in the commodities and the statement from the world bank which said that the global economy would shrink 2.9% in 2009, worse than its previous March forecast for 1.7% decline, are the main factors behind this pullback. While investors and traders are still in risk aversion state, I expect that the JCI would continue its rally in a few days ahead. I have some data that I would show you to support my opinion based on technical perspective.


(Source: Dongsuh Securities, edited)

This chart shows the "Fibonacci" retracement. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is arround 1910 level. This level could be seen as a strong support since its rally from 1245 level to its highest level at 2116. Today JCI has managed to closed slightly above this important support at 1914. I assumed that the market is ready to make a new rally in the coming days. I also have some data from some stocks that I covered. These stocks also has managed to closed arround its Fibonacci retracement level:

Fibonacci	BUMI	ADRO	JSMR	SMGR	LSIP
Retracement
23.60%	1946.22	1280.08	1525.24	4845.7	6308.8
38.20%	1711.89	1174.96	1392.38	4564.65	5695.6
50.00%	1522.5	1090	1285	4337.5	5200
61.80%	1333.11	1005.04	1177.62	4110.35	4704.4
100.00%	720	730	830	3375	3100

BUMI closed at 1660, slightly below its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. ADRO closed at 1080, very close to its 50% retracement level. JSMR today has closed at 1490, slightly below its 23.6%. It could go further to 1392.38 or bounce back to continue the rally. SMGR is closed in green. On Friday 19 June 2009, SMGR managed to bounce back above its 50% level and continue the rally. LSIP has touched its 50% retracement level today (low of the day) but managed to close higher at 5500.

Based on this data, I expect JCI to continue the rally. ADRO, LSIP, SMGR and JSMR are likely to continue the rally along with the JCI while BUMI is in a neutral position.