ELTY 61.8% Retracement, TP: 225

Bloomberg Code: ELTY:IJ
Reuters Code: ELTY.JK

I would like to discuss ELTY from technical point of view. In my observation, ELTY start the long rally at 55 level and reached the highest level at 390. In the last few months ELTY has been decreasing substantially due to its group (Bakrie) right issue for some of its subsidiaries. The Dubai crisis also has triggered this stock to go down further.

I would show you some chart to get some ideas to buy this stock with fibonacci retracement approach. With its rally from 55 to 390, the 61.80% retracement is around 183 level. If in the next few days the stock shows some strong support around 183, I would recommend a speculative buy for this stock.


(Source: Dongsuh Securities)

BUMI has rebounded more than 8% today. I am expecting that the other Bakrie stocks would follow BUMI to rebound. I would set 222.5 level as the first target (50% retracement), with potential gain about 20%.

Here is the complete retracement level:

23.60%	310.94
38.20%	262.03
50%	222.5
61.80%	182.97
100%	55

BUMI is Lagging the market

Over the last 3 months BUMI has been lagging the overall market. This condition, I believe due to the management way of handling the debt. My previous price target of BUMI was 4000 at the end of 2009. It is very little chance for BUMI to reach that target. Even though BUMI would not be able to reach 4000 this year, I still optimistic that BUMI would pass that target next year.

I would show you some charts, showing the relative performance of BUMI against the other stocks. The first chart would show you the performance of BUMI against other coal stocks over the last 3 months.

(Source: Bloomberg, click to enlarge)

As you can see, BUMI performance is -17% (green line) and the mining index is close to 0 (yellow line) PTBA and ADRO both are performing so nice up more than 25% (red and yellow lines)

On the second chart you could see that compare to other large cap stocks, BUMI has been lagging these other large caps. BBRI (green line), ASII (yellow line), and SMGR (orange line) are performing positively.

(Source: Bloomberg, click to enlarge)

The future performance of BUMI would heavily influenced by the 3Q result which will be published the end of the year. If the result is good, I believe BUMI would go beyond 3000 level.

While the Jakarta Composite Index has reached 2500, it would not go to 2600 if BUMI which is heavily weighted the index still lag the market behind. I am expecting BUMI to reach 2800 at the end of the year, so that the JCI rally would continue.

Tunas Ridean (TURI) is attractive

Bloomberg Code: TURI:IJ
Reuters Code: TURI.JK

PT. Tunas Ridean (TURI) operates automobile dealerships that sell new and used motor vehicles, spare parts and accessories as well as provide after sales services. The company also provides operating lease and consumer financing services.

As a cyclical stock, TURI could be considered as one of the stock that you have to hold in your portfolio these days. The automobile industry is still growing in Indonesia which has large domestic based demand. The improvement in the global economy recently would also contribute some significant portion in TURI’s next quarter sales. While we are approaching the end of the year, I projected the demand of vehicles would be significantly higher in the coming months.

The 3Q-2009 sales has growth more than 30% q/q. I projected that TURI would grow it sales at least 15% in the next quarter. I will show you my projection:

TURI 4Q-2009 EPS PROJECTION

(in Mio RP)	4Q-2009F	3Q-2009	2Q-2009	1Q-2009
Sales	1,631,344.00	1,418,560.00	1,077,900.00	1,045,830.00
Opr Income	32,626.88	27,769.00	16,388.00	7,526.00
Opr Margin	2%	1.96%	1.52%	0.72%
Net Income	60,359.73	51,072.00	42,755.00	140,283.00
Net Margin	3.70%	3.60%	3.97%	13.41%
Total Share	1395	1395	1395	1395
EPS	43.27	36.61	30.65	100.56
Ann EPS	173.07	146.44	122.59	402.25

With the projected annualized EPS of 173.07, I derived the ideal price of TURI at the end of 2009. I believe the ideal PE multiplier would be in the range of 10 – 12x.

TURI EXPECTED PRICE

Expected Price	4Q-09F
PE 10 x	1730.74
PE 12 x	2076.89

INTP: The Growth is real

The cement industry is growing still. My favorite stock in this industry is Indocement (INTP). If you guys have been following me, on my last post I showed you guys the fib retracement as a tool to buy this stock(Here: http://indoekuitas.blogspot.com/2009/10/get-ready-to-ride-bull.html ) On that post, I recommended the 23.6% retracement as the level to buy this stock at 10.400. This week INTP closed at 11.800, so you guys might have made about 13%.

I'll show you guys the q/q result of INTP.



Even though the sales were not growing that fast, INTP capable of making consistent growth on its EPS. I believe on the 4th quarter the revenue would grow faster and would reflected on its EPS.



The 3Q-09 q/q earning is growing although only 3.9%, while the 2Q-09 was growing 33% q/q.

Get Ready to Ride the Bull..!!

In the last few days, the stocks have been in a pullback situation. Fund managers and major investors are taking some profit in the Indonesian market which has been the best performer this year. For me, as an optimistic and a very bullish trader, I see these days are the best time to enter the market.

I would show you guys some perspectives and ideas to time the market from technical point of view.

BMRI Daily Chart
(Source: Dongsuh Securities, edited)

The chart above is the Bank Mandiri (BMRI) candle stick. The chart shows that BMRI has been pushed down beyond the major moving average line (the red MA line). It could be seen as a sign that BMRI is entering a bearish situation. I tried to figure the fibonacci retracement from BMRI chart to get an ideal price to buy this stock. The March 2009 was the initial long rally, with initial price of 1750. The highest level was 5300. The 23.6% retracement for me is an ideal price to get in. The price of 23.6% retracement is around 4462.


INTP Daily Chart
(Source: Dongsuh Securities, edited)

This is another chart of Indocement (INTP). The rally was started on March 2009 with initial price of 4250. The highest level was around 12300. The 23.6% Fib retracement is 10400, which is an ideal level to buy this stock.

The best price level to buy those stocks are unique for every investor since every investor has his own risk-aversion or risk-taking level. For an aggressive investors, 23.6% might be the best level but for moderate investors 38.2% or 50% might be the ideal level.

Here is the summary of the retracement level for BMRI, INTP and SMGR.

Fibonacci	BMRI	INTP	SMGR
Retracement
23.60%	4462	10400	6174
38.20%	3944	9225	5663
50.00%	3525	8275	5250
61.80%	3106	7325	4837
100.00%	1750	4250	3500