MSKY ready to rally

I am showing you an idea for trading this week. This is a triangle pattern from MSKY. It started the pattern in December 2012. The breakout level is around 2400, which is giving a projected upward at 3300. (By measuring the height of the triangle).

Hope that this target could be reached in about 5 to 6 months and could generate around 24% return from today close.Happy profiting.. !

TAXI overweight TP 1,600

(Code : TAXI:IJ  TAXI.JK)

One of the Buffet stock picking strategy is "Circle of Competence" - which is selecting a businesses that he can understand and analyze. TAXI is one example of stock that we can easily understand and analyze with relatively steady cash flow.

Owned by Rajawali group, the company provides taxi service in Indonesia especially in Jakarta, Depok, Tangerang, Bekasi, Surabaya, Semarang and Medan. It has regular taxi service, premium taxi services and also operates value added transportation business (VATB) through its subsidiaries and associated companies, which provides the limousine in Bali, Bandung, Lombok and Jakarta.

I established a projection in spreadsheet with assumption that TAXI could maintain its revenue growth at 50% in 2013 an 2014 as shown below :

Based on this projection, I derived the ideal price for Taxi at the end of 2013 and 2014 by multiplying its EPS with multiplier factor as shown here :

P/E Ratio	2014	2013
15 x	1406	1205
20 x	1875	1607
25 x	2344	2009

Based on this projection, I believe the fair price of TAXI at the end of 2013 should be at 1200 - 1600 with 15x and 20x multiplier factor.

BKSL is forming the famous "Tri Star Doji" ????

BKSL (BKSL:IJ, BKSL.JK) is another top pick in property sector. With huge undeveloped land bank in very nice hill view at Sentul, good access to Jakarta, BKSL is a nice pick for a long term investor.

The central Bank of Indonesia just maintain it's record-low policy rate at 5.75% for a 14th consecutive month today as inflationary pressures in the coming months may ease. This action will boost property sales at at least the same pace as last year.

In February 2013, BKSL booked marketing sales of RP 169 Billion (17.5 MillionUSD) or a 3.6 times of its February 2012 sales.

But I just gonna show you a technical point of view regarding the famous "Tri Star Doji". I looked at the chart today, and I just wonder is it true that BKSL has formed the "Tri Star Doji" ??

ALAM SUTERA (ASRI) top performer this quarter !

ASRI (ASRI:IJ, ASRI.JK) is one of the best performer this quarter. I personally hold ASRI as my current top holding. It has gained around 60% ytd.

If you look at the chart, the 23.6% fibonacci retracement at around 1000 level has failed to support ASRI recently, hence we are anticipating ASRI to touch it's 38.2% fibonacci retracement at 900 - 920 level. Fundamentally, property sector is one of the favorite sector in indonesia equity market. With supply has been limited while demand grows fast in recent years, we are still put a lot of confidence in this stock.

Based on data from reuters, the trailing twelve months PE ratio is around 16.60x. It is significantly much cheaper compare to its peer such as SMRA PE 25, BKSL PE 45, BSDE PE 22. Based on this data, we believe there is still plenty room for this stock to move up further with our TP 1,200. So, get ready to accumulate this stock when it reach 900 - 920 level.

Summarecon Agung (SMRA), Overweight !

Indonesian stock market started the year of 2011 with some inflationary risk concern which forced the index to slump almost 10%. Major sector with interest rate sensitive like banking, property, automobile plummet.

I personally agree that the downside risk would be significantly contributed by inflationary threat. This condition will push investors to shift their portfolio into commodity related stocks. Like we have seen recently, SMRA also hit by this condition with -15% ytd based on today closing price. I will show you some numbers about SMRA. While we are waiting for the FY 2010 report, it would be relatively profitable trade for you who are optimistic about this stock since it has been extremely undervalued these days.


(Click to enlarge)

Based on the Income statement summary, we could see that SMRA's revenue is growing consistently and the growth relatively exponential. The annualized EPS in 3Q 2010 is much higher than the previous quarters. With this result, we could assume that the 4Q result would also grow.


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The ROE also significantly grow each quarter. With the growth of the asset faster than the equity which has been shown, we could assume that SMRA is extremely in its aggressive expansion. If the condition of the economy conducive, this aggressive expansion will be transformed into cash flow.

With those assumptions and another assumption that the growth of SMRA is 10% based on its 3Q EPS and 3Q Book Value (BV), I proposed this valuation guide:

VALUATION	10% growth
PE 20 X	978.57
PE 25 X	1223.22
BV 3 X	1064.49
BV 3.5 X	1241.90

From this valuation, the fair value of SMRA at the end of the year should be in the range of 980 - 1250.